On October 30, the Non-ferrous metal held a press conference on the Non-ferrous Metal's industrial performance in the first three quarters. Jia Mingxing, vice president and secretary general of the Non-ferrous metal, gave a briefing and answered questions from reporters. Under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, the Non-ferrous metal and the Non-ferrous metal have done their best to prevent and control the new pneumonia this year, Jia said, actively and orderly promote the resumption of work and production. Overall, in the first three quarters, China's Non-ferrous metal showed a bottom in the first quarter, the second and third quarters to restore a positive trend, but the expansion of smelting capacity to remain vigilant.

1.China's Non-ferrous metal industry in the first three quarters, showing a bottom after the recovery of the good trend

The vice president and secretary general of the Non-ferrous metal first summarized the overall performance of the non ferrous industry in the first three quarters:

(1)According to the regulations, the cumulative growth rate of industrial added value has increased steadily in Non-ferrous metal. In the first three quarters, the value added of the Non-ferrous metal and calendering industries increased by 1.9 percent year on year, 0.7 percentage points higher than the national average. In the first half of the year, the value added of the Non-ferrous metal and calendering industries increased by 1.0% , compared with a 3.8% decline in the first quarter, and by 0.9 percentage points in the first three quarters.

 (2)The growth rate of smelting output of common Non-ferrous metal has increased steadily, while mine and processing output have resumed positive growth. In the first three quarters, the output of Non-ferrous metal was 45.176 million tons, up 3.5 percent year on year. 

(3)The decline in fixed asset investment was generally narrower. In the first three quarters, total investment in fixed assets by Non-ferrous metal industries (including independent gold companies) fell 7.0% year on year, a decline of 1.5 percentage points from the first half and 4.4 percentage points from the first quarter. Among them, the investment in fixed assets of mining, dressing and calendering decreased by 6.9% and 7.0% respectively. 

(4)Imports and exports of unwrought rolled copper and copper products increased significantly, while exports of unwrought rolled aluminum and aluminum products decreased. In the first three quarters, China imported 4.994 million tons of unwrought and rolled copper and copper products, up 41.2 percent year-on-year, an increase of 16 percent over the first half of the year and 32.1 percent over the first quarter. China exported 3.561 million tons of unwrought and rolled aluminum products, the 18.4 per cent year-on-year decline was 2.2 percentage points narrower than in the first half of the year but still 0.9 percentage points wider than in the first quarter. 

(5)Copper and aluminum prices in the domestic market have recovered to and surpassed their pre-epidemic levels. In September, the average price of copper on the domestic spot market was 51,814 Yuan/ton, up 10,200 yuan/ton from the average price in March, up 24.5 percent, and 3,263 Yuan/ton, up 6.7 percent from the average price in December before the epidemic. In September, the average price of aluminum on the domestic spot market was 14,620 Yuan/ton, up 2,290 Yuan/ton from the average price in March, an increase of 18.6% , and 358 yuan/ton from the average price in December before the epidemic, an increase of 2.5% . 

(6)Non-ferrous metal reported positive earnings growth. In the first three quarters of this year, Non-ferrous metal industrial enterprises made profits of 110.07 billion yuan, up 2.9 percent year on year. Of the 34 sub sectors of industrial companies in the Non-ferrous metal, 17 saw profit growth in the first three quarters.

2.the fourth quarter Non-ferrous metal, is expected to maintain the recovery of the positive trend

Based on the macro-economic environment at home and abroad, combined with the "Trinity" Non-ferrous Metal Industry Forecast and warning index compiled by the Non-ferrous metal, the preliminary assessment is that Non-ferrous metal will continue to maintain a recovery trend in the fourth quarter of this year, but there are still uncertainties. Key indicators for the Non-ferrous metal industry are expected to be as follows: In the fourth quarter, Non-ferrous metal will continue to maintain steady growth, mines and processed products are expected to continue to grow, and overall annual Non-ferrous metal production is expected to be slightly higher than last year's level; In the fourth quarter, the decline in fixed Non-ferrous metal investment is expected to gradually narrow; in the fourth quarter, the pressure on exports of aluminum and other Non-ferrous metal is still relatively large, the year-round exports are not optimistic; in the fourth quarter, in the fourth quarter, the Non-ferrous metal is expected to continue the third quarter's profit level. In the fourth quarter, the domestic downstream industry is expected to Non-ferrous metal further demand recovery.

3.Keeping the Non-ferrous metal running smoothly is a concern

On the issue of keeping the non-ferrous industry running smoothly, Jia Mingxing believes that the expansion of smelting capacity needs to remain highly vigilant, and the focus on monetary policy will also be conducive to risk control for industrial enterprises.

(1) Focus on Non-ferrous metal capacity growth. By the end of 2019, according to the Non-ferrous metal, China had 8.2 million tons of crude copper production capacity, 11.8 million tons of electrolytic copper production capacity, and 88.5 million tons of alumina production capacity, Jia said, electrolytic aluminum production capacity reached 43.5 million tons per year. In the current price recovery, profit increase in the premise, the already saturated part of the Non-ferrous metal capacity expansion of kinetic energy, should be of concern to the industry.

 2. Growth in industrial production above the size of the Non-ferrous metal in September was revised back. In September, the value added of Non-ferrous metal and calendering industries rose 3.5 percent from a year earlier, 1.3 percentage points lower than in August and 3.4 percentage points lower than the national average. 

3. Focus on returning monetary policy to normalcy. Star Jia tips, October 21, "during the special period of fighting the epidemic this year, macro leverage ratio has increased, and after GDP growth picks up next year, macro leverage ratio will be more stable, " Yi Gang, governor of the People's Bank of China, said at the 2020 financial street forum. Monetary policy needs to properly regulate the general gate of money supply and the fluctuation of macro-leverage ratio so as to maintain it on a reasonable track for a long time.the statement of "intensifying macro-policy regulation" was deleted from the regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China in the third quarter of 2020. Market analysts believe that to cut interest rates and cut the standard on behalf of the total easing or will no longer increase.

 Source: Non-ferrous metal, editor in chief by law, Wang Zhe